When will the consequences of the butterfly effect come when the sea ice area in Antarctica reaches a historic low? The scale and time frame of its occurrence will depend on how much effort humans can make in environmental protection or self rescue.
Recently, scientists reported that the area of the Antarctic ocean covered by ice has dropped to its lowest in history, and the thicker ice shelf that supports the surface ice sheet of Antarctica has been exposed to waves and higher temperatures. Meanwhile, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) of the United States also stated that between February 13th and 19th of this year, the sea ice area in Antarctica decreased to 1.91 million square kilometers, the lowest level since records began in 1979. If global temperatures continue to rise and glaciers near Antarctica melt, it will lead to catastrophic sea level rise in the coming centuries… Faced with such challenges, where will the future of Earth go?
Will coastal cities be submerged? How far is the disaster from us?
As early as in a news on May 12, 2014, American researchers warned that the ice sheet on the west side of the Antarctic had begun to collapse, and this process was “unstoppable”. The team of scientists reported that the Svetz Glacier, as the “cornerstone” that gathers the West Antarctic Ice Sheet together, has begun to collapse. In the long run, over time, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may no longer exist, and the melting water of ice and snow is enough to raise sea levels by more than 3 meters. Affected by this, multiple low-lying coastal cities around the world may be submerged by seawater in the future.
This is not a alarmist statement. In the same year, a paper published in the US journal Science stated that in just 200 years, the outermost edge of the Svetz Glacier will continue to retreat, crossing a ridge underwater that is slowly melting and retreating. Researchers have concluded through model data analysis that once the glacier’s “grounding wire” (i.e. the critical point at which the ice body begins to float) retreats and crosses the ridge, the glacier will quickly fall into collapse. What does this mean? Through another research team’s radar mapping description of Antarctica’s southwest Antarctic glacier in geophysics Research Letters, we learned that this 600 meter deep ridge is the last barrier for bedrock under the glacier to immerse into the basin below. In short, the collapse of the glacier will cause seawater to inundate Southwest Antarctica and result in the loss of all glaciers in the region.
For humans, the melting of glaciers will constitute a huge disaster.
In November 2021, a satellite image showed that several large cracks across the ice wedge had appeared on the ice shelf supporting the Siweiz Glacier. The large cracks on the ice shelf are like cracks on the windshield. With just a little external force, cracks like spider webs can appear. Once the ice shelf ruptures, most of the glaciers that are now bound by it will melt at a rate exceeding three times. If this trend is allowed to develop, the worst-case scenario is that the disappearance of the Svetz Glacier may also attract the surrounding glaciers, which will trigger a larger collapse of the western Antarctic ice sheet.
Scientists made a brave attempt to operate an unmanned submarine into the Svetz Glacier, but brought back chilling news: the melting speed of the glacier far exceeds people’s imagination. Prior to this, climate scientists had been paying attention to the Svetz Glacier for more than 20 years. When they dispatched unmanned submarines deep beneath the glacier, they did not know how fast the glacier was melting or when it would collapse. This attempt has made people even more uneasy: previously underestimated warm water flows are flowing in from the east, slowly melting several important “fixed points” that fix glaciers and land, which may lead to glacier sliding and retreat. In other words, the entire glacier may detach from land and drift towards the sea.
The Svetz Glacier has always been known as the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ and is one of the fastest melting glaciers in Antarctica. According to data, since the 1980s, the Svetz Glacier has lost approximately 595 billion tons of ice, with melting water accounting for 4% of global sea level rise. There is a vivid metaphor that says that the Svetz Glacier is like a cork on a red wine bottle. Once it collapses, the remaining part of the Southwest Antarctic ice sheet will burst out.
In 2023, scientists will continue to conduct in-depth research. Satellite data shows that the area of Antarctic sea ice has changed greatly in the past 40 years, and has shown a decreasing trend in recent years. Researchers believe that its change is caused by many complex reasons, which cannot be simply attributed to global warming.
Ice Shelf Collapse Brings Butterfly Effect
Inspiration from Larsen B and Kange
For a long time, Antarctica has been known as the “stabilizer” of the global climate. One reason is that the high albedo of the Antarctic sea ice reflects a lot of solar radiation, and the global temperature is stable; Another reason is that the huge ice body in Antarctica has the function of absorbing heat and storing heat, which can stabilize the global atmospheric energy balance. But since 2016, rapid changes in Antarctica’s glaciers, such as frequent extreme weather and increased unexpected events such as rare heatwaves, have accelerated the melting rate of glaciers, and the chain reaction caused has begun to manifest
On April 20, 2022, the British The Independent reported that scientists found that the area of Antarctic sea ice had shrunk to a new historical low. The main reason for its impact was the natural climate cycle, but more importantly, the problem of climate warming caused by human factors. The report mentioned that in recent years, extreme weather in Antarctica has been frequent. Since 2014, the sea ice area has begun to shrink, reaching its lowest level in 2017. By 2020, Antarctica has also experienced a rare heatwave attack, with the highest temperature rising by about 9.2 degrees Celsius compared to previous years.
On April 20, 2022, the British The Independent reported that scientists found that the area of Antarctic sea ice had shrunk to a new historical low. The main reason for its impact was the natural climate cycle, but more importantly, the problem of climate warming caused by human factors. The report mentioned that in recent years, extreme weather in Antarctica has been frequent. Since 2014, the sea ice area has begun to shrink, reaching its lowest level in 2017. By 2020, Antarctica has also experienced a rare heatwave attack, with the highest temperature rising by about 9.2 degrees Celsius compared to previous years.
Unfortunately, this situation has already occurred in Antarctica. In 2002, the Larsen B Ice Shelf located in the northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula collapsed, covering an area of approximately 3250 square kilometers, making it the largest ice shelf collapse event in history. On March 15, 2022, another huge ice shelf called “Kangge” completely collapsed, located in the eastern part of Antarctica, with an area equivalent to the sum of Huangpu District and Baiyun District in Guangzhou City.
NASA Earth scientist Catherine Collello Walker stated that the collapse of the Konger Ice Shelf is one of the most important events in Antarctica since the collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002. Unlike the Larsen B Ice Shelf located in western Antarctica, the Kange Ice Shelf is located in the eastern part of Antarctica, with colder and more stable temperatures. It was once considered the highest latitude, driest climate, and lowest temperature region on the continent. Prior to this, scientists did not expect an ice shelf collapse event to occur here.
In other words, temperature changes have already affected colder areas in Antarctica, and scientists believe that the collapse of the Kange Ice Shelf may have occurred simultaneously with extreme heat waves. When a heatwave struck, temperatures in some areas of Antarctica were nearly 40 degrees Celsius higher than the monthly average. But is there a direct correlation between heat waves and ice shelf collapse? Professor Matt King of the University of Tasmania provided an answer: “Heat waves may be one of the factors, and further research is needed to determine whether they will cause a chain reaction. However, it is worth noting that the coastline of Antarctica has been retreating since the 1970s, and in any case, heat waves may become the final blow
So, what is the relationship between the collapse of the ice shelf and the ice sheets and glaciers, and what chain reactions will it bring?
In fact, an ice shelf is a protruding floating ice extending from the coast to the sea, attached to land ice sheets and glaciers, playing a supporting role. Professor Matt King explained that because the ice shelf has always been floating on the water surface, the collapse of the ice shelf itself has almost no direct impact on sea level rise except for cooling the seawater. However, the ice shelf can be said to be the “safety belt” at the edge of the Antarctic ocean. The disappearance of the ice shelf is like releasing a valve on the land ice, making it unstable. The friction between the glacier and the side walls and riverbed disappears, leading to the direct result of accelerating the glacier’s push towards the ocean.
It is undeniable that the collapse of the Kange Ice Shelf is a serious warning from nature to humanity, and even in eastern Antarctica, there is a possibility of significant and rapid changes. At present, what can be seen with the naked eye is that a large amount of sea ice has retreated in the Arctic. Although Antarctica has not yet reached this level of severity, with the intensification of global warming, glacier melting may only be a matter of time.
More than just polar glaciers are melting
Human self rescue urgently needs action
The sea ice area in Antarctica has reached a historic low, and climate issues cannot be underestimated. Climate change not only leads to glacier retreat, sea level rise, and ocean warming, but also brings about another series of reactions. Through scientific data research, it has been found that global warming caused by climate change has posed a huge threat to human health and survival issues.
Not only are glaciers melting in the North and South Poles, but since the 1920s, glaciers in Asian regions such as Nepal, India, Pakistan, China, and others have also been melting at different rates. A research report by the International Committee on Ice and Snow (ICSI) states that “the retreat rate of glaciers in the Himalayan region is faster than any other region in the world. If the current melting rate continues, the likelihood of these glaciers disappearing before 2035 is very high. Once the glaciers in the the Himalayas, the “roof of the world”, disappear, the human living environment will undergo earth shaking changes.
In addition, Paul Upstein from the Institute of New and Recurrent Diseases at Harvard University stated that as temperatures rise at mountain peaks, high-altitude areas will also become increasingly favored by microorganisms such as mosquitoes and malaria parasites. In this way, some tropical diseases will begin to attack colder areas. Since 1987, the successive outbreaks of tropical infectious diseases such as malaria and yellow fever in Florida, Mississippi River, California, and Colorado in the United States seem to be supporting evidence of predictions.
In addition, from the perspective of crop growth patterns, the increase in temperature caused by climate change is not conducive to seed growth. In addition, temperature has disrupted the global water circulation system, leading to increased precipitation and flooding in mid to high latitudes, reduced precipitation and drought in Africa and other regions, with increasing frequency and intensity. As the saying goes, the death of drought and the death of waterlogging can also lead to reduced crop yields, directly affecting the issue of human food and clothing.
Human self rescue urgently requires action. To alleviate the rate of glacier melting in Antarctica, the major challenge of global warming must be addressed.
How to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and “emission reduction” has been a hot topic of discussion among countries in recent years. Firstly, humans not only need to protect forests, but also start planting a large number of trees to promote forest regeneration through large-scale afforestation work. Secondly, in terms of carbon dioxide emissions, efforts should be made to reduce the exhaust emissions generated by cars, as well as the use of fossil fuels and gasoline, and choose low-carbon modes of transportation such as public transportation.
Of course, human self-help behavior should also penetrate into every aspect of daily life. For example, regarding the issue of household waste, it is important to classify it properly and avoid littering; Water resource issues, enhance awareness of water conservation, and handle recycling effectively; Energy issues, starting with every small matter of turning off the lights casually; The issue of animal and plant resources requires the establishment of a concept of protecting biodiversity.
In Hemingway’s “The Bell Tolls for Whom”, there is a passage: “No one is an island that is self-contained and isolated from the world, every person is a part of a vast continent… Every person’s death is my sorrow, because I am a member of humanity. Therefore, do not ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for you.” We should clearly realize that the challenges that humanity will face in the future are the challenges that we will face.
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