The substitution effect of new energy vehicles on fuel vehicles is becoming more and more significant.
According to the statistics of the number of insurance companies on the car cloud, the overall car market sales in the first eight months of this year have exceeded 12.46 million vehicles, of which the proportion of new energy vehicle sales has risen to 24.15%, and the proportion of fuel vehicles has fallen to 75.85%. A year ago, in 2021, the two figures were about 15% and 85%. That is to say, in less than a year, the replacement rate of new energy vehicles to fuel vehicles is as high as 10%. According to this trend, new energy vehicles may become the mainstream of the automobile market within 10 years. As can be seen from the bar chart below, the market share of fuel vehicles changed dramatically in the first quarter, from a high of more than 85% to a low of 69%. Although the market share of fuel vehicles has recovered since April, it has always been Stay around 74%.
At present, the share of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is relatively flat. However, with the help of factors such as frequent new products and policy assistance, the inflection point of new energy vehicles rising and fuel vehicles falling may arrive in a few months. From the perspective of enterprise types, there are significant differences in the development of independent car companies and joint venture car companies in the fuel vehicle market and the new energy vehicle market.
Self-owned car companies occupy 85% of the new energy vehicle market share
The new energy vehicle market is basically dominated by independent car companies. As can be seen from the figure below, in the first eight months of this year, compared with joint venture vehicles, independent car companies almost had an advantage in the new energy vehicle market. In the first eight months, the market share of autonomous car companies exceeded 70%, the highest in April even exceeded 92%, and the lowest in June had a market share of 77%.
In contrast to joint venture car companies, their share of the new energy vehicle market in the first eight months was basically around 20%, the highest in June did not exceed 23%, and the lowest in April was only 7.66%. If Tesla, a unique wholly-owned car company, is excluded, the share of the entire joint venture car company in China’s new energy vehicle market will be less than 10%. In the new energy vehicle market, the fundamental reason for the huge difference in the shares of self-owned car companies and joint venture car companies is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of self-owned car companies is much higher than that of joint venture car companies. Data from the first eight months of this year show that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles by autonomous car companies has achieved a huge leap in the first quarter alone – from less than 27% in January to 53.44% in March, doubling. Since then, it has maintained a penetration rate of about 50% since April.
In contrast, the joint venture car companies, although they doubled from less than 5% to 12.36% in the first quarter, they began to fall back and are currently at the level of 7%. If Tesla is excluded, the average penetration rate of new energy vehicles of joint venture car companies in the first eight months was around 5%. Therefore, the sales pattern of the new energy vehicle market also reflects the current situation of strong independent car companies and weak joint venture car companies.
The new energy vehicle camp has formed 3 echelons
In the first eight months of this year, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 3 million, of which the top 20 car companies accounted for more than 87% of the market share, but only 3 of the 20 car companies are joint venture car companies, and one is a wholly-owned car Enterprise Tesla. Among the three joint venture car companies, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen have a combined share of about 4%, while BMW Brilliance has only a 1% share. That is to say, among the top 20 car companies by sales, the share of joint venture car companies is only 5%, while the share of self-owned car companies is as high as nearly 75%.
The leader of independent car companies is BYD Auto. Its cumulative sales in the first eight months have exceeded 860,000 units, more than 500,000 units higher than the second place; its market share is as high as 28.7%, nearly three times that of the second place. In the fuel vehicle market, the shares of various enterprises generally show a regular decrease in the characteristics, and the competitiveness of enterprises is also comparable. However, in the new energy vehicle market, BYD’s current sales dominance has broken the competition pattern in the fuel vehicle market, much like the pattern of Apple mobile phones and other mobile phones in the smartphone market. Judging from the sales trend in the first eight months, the current new energy vehicle companies can be divided into three echelons – the first echelon is undoubtedly only BYD, and its sales trend in the first eight months looks like a rocket. And there is a kind of stand out from the crowd. The second echelon consists of Tesla and Wuling Motors. Although their sales trends have not skyrocketed like BYD’s, and there will even be ups and downs, there will be a certain distance from other car companies in general.
The third echelon is composed of many independent car companies and joint venture car companies, which occupies the majority of the camp. The sales gap between them is small, and the overall trend shows a dense intertwined line. But in the third echelon, there are also players who break out from the dense lines, and people can see its growth at a glance. For example, the sales volume of Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Cars in January was only over 10,000 units, but in August, it turned over to more than 20,000 units, from unknown to people at a glance; Changan Automobile also sold 9,000 units in January. The level of vehicles rose to 23,000 in August, and the growth rate was even faster than that of GAC Passenger Cars; Geely Auto also doubled its growth. The rapid growth of these independent fuel car companies in the new energy vehicle market also makes them feel superior when compared with the former “big brother” joint venture car companies.
The penetration rate of electrification of mainstream joint venture car companies is less than 5%
The number of insurance coverage shows that in the top 10 sales of the fuel vehicle market in the first eight months of this year, only Changan and Geely are two independent car companies, and only 8 of the top 20 are self-owned car companies, and the top 20 in the new energy vehicle market. Only 3 are joint venture car companies, and joint venture car companies still have obvious advantages in the fuel vehicle market.
The data from the first eight months shows that in the fuel vehicle market, the top 20 joint venture car companies by sales account for up to 63.95% of the market share, while the top 20 independent car companies only occupy 29.15% of the market share. to 30%.
This shows that the current fuel vehicle market is still dominated by joint venture car companies. However, how proud the joint venture car companies are in the fuel vehicle market, how inferior they are in the new energy vehicle market. According to the statistics of the number of insurance companies on Cheyun, among the mainstream joint venture car companies, the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles is generally less than 5%, and some are even less than 1%. For example, GAC Toyota, FAW Toyota and Beijing Hyundai all had a penetration rate of new energy vehicles of less than 1% in the first eight months, while Beijing Hyundai was only 0.21%.
Only FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, Beijing Benz and BMW Brilliance have a penetration rate of new energy vehicles of more than 5%. Among them, BMW Brilliance has the best performance, reaching 7.48%, but it is still far from the passing line. On the other hand, almost all of the fuel independent car companies exceeded 15%. There are 4 companies with a penetration rate of 10% to 20% – 14.95% of Changan Automobile, 13.6% of Geely Automobile, 15.73% of Great Wall Motors, and 12.52% of FAW Car. There is 1 company with a penetration rate of 20% to 30% – 20.67% of SAIC Motor; 1 company with a penetration rate of 30% to 40%, which is 33.96% of Chery Automobile; penetration rate of 40% to 50% There is 1 company, which is 40.08% of GAC Passenger Cars; there is also 1 company with a penetration rate of more than 50% – Wuling Motors is as high as 58.94%.
It can be seen that those independent car companies that have been catching up on the fuel car track for decades are changing the track to surpass the previous “big brother” joint venture car companies.
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